Supply Chain Optimization under Uncertainty

Supply chain design for optimum performance

Barrie Michael Cole

Drawing on cutting-edge research, this book proposes a new 'Supply Chain Optimization under Uncertainty’, technology. Its application can bring many proven benefits to supply chain entities, any associated service providers, and, of course, the customers. The technology can provide the best design and operating solution for a Supply Chain Network (SCN) that is subject to any prevailing conditions of Operational Uncertainty (OU). A SCN is defined as a network of production facilities, distribution centers and retail sales outlets. OU is defined as any relevant combination of i) multiple process objectives e.g. a business needs to maximize operating profits and to minimize inventory levels, ii) fuzziness (<, <=, >, or >=) e.g. sales <= 1500 t/mth and iii) probability e.g. sale of fertilizer is dependent on probabilistic rainfall. Following this method always enables the determination of realistic optimum supply chain solutions, since the effects of any operational uncertainties are always provided for. The book is arranged in two parts. The first part covers the theory and recent research into supply chain optimization under uncertainty. The second part documents the application of the newly proposed technology to an agricultural fertilizer’s (NPK, South Africa) supply chain.

Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models

José Luis Torres Chacon, Universidad de Málaga, Spain

This book offers an introductory step-by-step course in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelling. Modern macroeconomic analysis is increasingly concerned with the construction, calibration and/or estimation and simulation of Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) models. The book is intended for graduate students as an introductory course to DGE modelling and for those economists who would like a hands-on approach to learning the basics of modern dynamic macroeconomic modelling. The book starts with the simplest canonical neoclassical DGE model and then gradually extends the basic framework incorporating a variety of additional features, such as consumption habit formation, investment adjustment cost, investment-specific technological change, taxes, public capital, household production, non-ricardian agents, monopolistic competition, etc. The book includes Dynare codes for the models developed that can be downloaded from the book’s homepage.

The Knowledge Plexus

A Systemic View on the Economic Geography of Technological Knowledge

George Chorafakis, University of Barcelona, Spain

This book is a collection of 5 essays on the economic geography of technological knowledge. Their common threads are: (i) the quest for a new paradigm in economic geography, termed ‘systemic’, as an alternative to the neoclassical, based on the epistemological premise of emergence and the theories of evolution and complexity; and (ii) the intent to explain the process of technological knowledge production as a systemic phenomenon occurring in relational space subject to emergence and co-evolutionary dynamics. In this theoretical framework, the author analyses various European knowledge networks, and examines their effects on the production of technological knowledge as sources of relational cognitive capital and economies of complexity. He then poses a number of questions on the direction and instrumentalities of the European research, technological development and innovation policies, and in particular on the issues of cohesion and dynamic efficiency of the European research system.

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit

New Edition

Frank Knight

In Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Frank Knight explored the riddle of profitability in a competitive market: profit should not be possible under competitive conditions, as the entry of new entrepreneurs would drive prices down and nullify margins, however evidence abounds of competitive yet profitable markets. To explain this seeming paradox, Knight uncovers the distinction between calculable risk and essentially unknowable uncertainty. Knight argued that risk stems from repeated events, which therefore allow probabilities to be calculated and factored into decisions, as for instance insurers do. Uncertainty however, stems from events that are unpredictable and as such cannot be prepared against. According to Knight, it is the interplay between risk and uncertainty on the one hand and competition between incumbent and new entrepreneurs that accounts for the enormous variation in profitability across firms and, for the same firms, over time. His insights on the sources of profit have been instrumental in shaping modern economic theory and to the development of a useful understanding of probability. This New Edition has been typeset with modern techniques and contains a newly compiled Index of important topics. It has been painstakingly proofread to ensure that it is free from errors and that the content is faithful to the original.